Fundamentals: supply and demand are still relatively tight
From a fundamental point of view, the overall fundamental pattern of glass has not returned to balance.
In terms of supply, due to the outstanding profits of glass original glass enterprises, manufacturers are actively resuming production and switching to production lines, and it is expected that there will be a certain degree of increase in production in the later period. However, according to relevant sources, the current industry estimates for follow-up output are only a "slight increase", and there is no way to fundamentally change the shortage of supply.
In terms of inventory, due to the stable orders of deep-processing enterprises, the downstream inventory consumption is still relatively obvious. In the context of falling inventories and falling glass prices, many companies have begun to see a new round of replenishment demand.
It is also worth mentioning that, from a profit perspective, although rising raw materials and falling glass prices have brought a certain degree of suppression to production profits, most companies still have considerable profits.
Policy: the work of ensuring supply and price stabilization is still in progress
In order to implement the spirit of the executive meeting of the State Council, on the morning of May 23, five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the State Administration for Market Supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission convened a meeting to once again ensure the supply and stabilization of bulk commodities. Vocalize.
The meeting clearly stated that the relevant regulatory authorities will closely monitor the price trends of bulk commodities, strengthen the joint supervision of bulk commodity futures and the spot market, "zero tolerance" for illegal activities, continue to increase law enforcement inspections, investigate abnormal transactions and malicious speculation, and resolute Strictly investigate and punish violations of the law, such as reaching a monopoly agreement, spreading false information, driving up prices, and hoarding.
As a result, although the fundamentals of glass are still relatively tight, the variety is also named by the State Council in the early stage, and the decline is much smaller than that of the black bulk. Under high policy pressure, the market is relatively cautious about the short- and medium-term outlook.